Timing Is Everything

Posted on October 2nd, 2013 by Red Belly Sports

The way to do this is to beat other punters to the price of a horse that’s likely to firm.

This occurred last weekend, when we sent out the following SMS message on Friday afternoon:

Caulfield Race 5 #2 Catkins 1.67 units (now $4.40)

Members who followed Ed’s advice and took the $4.40 about Catkins locked in substantially more than what was available at jump time, when around $3.10 was the best price on offer.

The fact Catkins won made it a great result for members, but even if the horse got beaten, we still would have been happy with our decision to take the early price.

Red Belly Ratings had Catkins rated a $3 chance, substantially shorter than the $4.40 on offer on Friday.

If Catkins had got beaten, it would simply have meant we had bet well, without luck.

But if you keep backing horses at prices greater than their actual chance of winning, you will win in the long-term. That is a fact.

Our other winners on Saturday from at total of six (6) bets were:

  • Mybenz      ($5.00 rated a $4.80 chance)
  • Moriarty      ($3.50 rated a $2.90 chance)