Fitness profiling plays a major role in the outcome of a race.
It is all too often overlooked or misunderstood by recreational punters who tend not to consider it a factor at all.
I have witnessed my mates assess a horse’s winning chances based on it repeating its last run, sometimes anticipating this to occur despite the fact a horse is resuming.
Profiling a horse is something we are big on here at Red Belly.
The questions that good profiling answer are:
• What is the preferred distance range?
• How does this horse perform when resuming?
• What condition of track suits this horse best?
• What is the optimum number of days between runs that has produced best performances?
• What track shape best suits its run style?
• From what (in-run) position has its better ratings performances come from?
• What race tempo has its better ratings come from?
• Does the horse carry weight well?
These days it’s difficult to fluke a win, especially given the new technology available to trainers and the calibre of trainer in this country.
So many things need to be in your favour.
If a horse you intend on backing isn’t fit, is racing at an unsuitable track/distance or has drawn to be in a poor map position….let it go around and wait for next time.
Far too many punters give away money to bookmakers simply because they can’t stand watching a favourite horse go around without their cash on it in case it wins.
The odd one may win, but one thing is certain…if you were to record expenditure versus return you will see a deficit or shortfall.
Look for races where you have an edge.
Concentrate on backing horses who are fit, approaching their peak, racing within a preferred distance range and well positioned on the speed map.
I’m tipping your success rate will improve, as will your punting bank.