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Red Belly Form Tip: Even The Best Can Get Beat

Posted on November 29th, 2013 by Red Belly Sports

A number of members have informed us they have upped their bet unit size several times this year on the back of the golden run Red Belly has enjoyed.

 

Make no mistake, this is a recipe for disaster.

 

Doing this is extremely dangerous, because even the best professional punters endure losing periods, it’s simply the nature of probability and variance.

 

This year we have had 10 winning months out of 11, so anyone who has upped their stake during the year will have upped their profits, but clearly don’t realise the risk they have taken in doing so.

 

If you have made a profit by betting at a certain unit value, and then up your unit value and hit a losing run, the damage to your bank can be immense.

 

Generally, it’s best to stick with the same unit value for a 12 month period, and then reassess before your next betting year begins.

 

I won’t bore you with the maths of variance and probability, because the maths is not the most important thing.

 

The most important factors in being a successful punter are the right attitude and discipline.

 

If you don’t have both, you won’t win in the long-term, it’s as simple as that.

 

Key points to remember:

 

• It is not possible to never have losing periods

 

• When they happen do not change your strategy

 

• Do not up you stake when winning, or reduce it when losing

 

• Never chase money

 

• Do not alter your stake to catch up

 

• Do not back favourites under our rated prices because you think they have a better chance of winning