Don’t blindly follow a horse just because you had a good win on it one day.
Make sure any horse you intend investing a portion of your bank on has the right attributes to win.
There is no value in guesswork.
Here’s an example of a poor profiler who was the favourite in a race at Wagga last year, a 1200m Open Handicap on a Dead 4.
ZARATONE – A horse we have had enormous wins on in town.
This horse is near unbeatable given the right circumstances.
Those circumstances are:
• Racing on a Good 3
• Racing over 1100m
• Racing at Rosehill (preferably)
• Dawn on the inside
At Wagga, the track was a Dead 4, the trip was 1200m and the horse drew an outside barrier.
Many punters fell into the horse because they had witnessed it beat better horses on a Saturday in town.
The fact is it can’t run 1200m, especially with 60kgs on a Dead track.
To many punters a Dead 4 may not seem that much different to a Good 3, but it brings Zaratone’s performance levels back (even at 1100m).
Zaratone started hard in the market that day at 5-1, but finished a well beaten 9th, 5 lengths behind the winner Adamon.
On face value, Zaratone may have appeared to be disappointing to some, but to those who had profiled the horse correctly (like us), the result wasn’t a surprise at all.
BOTTOM LINE: Mapping and profiling overrides recent form – ALWAYS!