Red Belly form expert Ed Kennett constantly analyses race data, and comes up with rules that help him break down races.
Applying these rules makes it easier to weed out horses that are likely to struggle, or which the betting market may overvalue.
This week’s form tip is to avoid or penalise leaders who are resuming at 1200m.
Leading is hard to do anytime, but leading after a spell when you lack fitness is a very stiff task indeed.
The races in particular where the statistics (over a very large sample) are especially low, with less than 5 % winners, are Maidens going into a Class 1 or Benchmark race, following an all the way win in the Maiden.
Overall however, when all races are included in the sample, the win percentage is still miniscule.
When a number of runners who are competing against the resuming leader have had more than two runs in their preparation, the chance of an all the way win is extremely remote.
**** Note: This golden rule applies specifically to sprint /middle distances horses at 1200m.
Do NOT apply this at 1100m or less. It’s that additional 100m that sees them run out of gas.